All real estate decisions must have three
feasibility tests to ensure the positive
outcome.
Market analysis is the process of
determining whether the market will support a particular use
at a particular site so that is
profitable.
1) Market
Feasibility,
Does the forecasted supply and demand
relationship for the property in the selected location
indicate success?
2) Location and Site
Feasibility,
Will the location and site support the
project adequately?
3) Financial
Feasibility,
Does the projected financial picture
indicate sufficient profit with the risk?
Market Feasibility is the
process for identifying Demand, Supply and Capital and
Political conditions faced by the type of real estate in a
selected region.
In market analysis, a common way to uncover
commercial real estate potential opportunities is to look
for gaps. A gap exists when demand exceeds
supply.
When demand equals the supply, the vacancy
rate equals zero. When supply greatly exceeds demand it’s
considered over supply.
Most real estate economist use employments
as the primary predictor of real estate
demand.
Basic employment includes all
the activities that produce more good and services than can
be consumed in local area. Total basic employment is a total
of basic employment for all industries. EBM, Economic base
multiplier is the ratio of total employment to basic
employment in each industry.
Total future employment can be
obtained through multiplying EBM, economic base multiplier
by basic employment.
The supply of commercial real estate is the
total amount of inventory for property type.
Pipeline
is new inventory of that is
process of being added to the market.
Forecast total supply inventory
in an area is all the existing space that is vacant ,
occupied, built, forecasted or demolished for a particular
area for specific time period. Vacancy measures the
intraction of supply and demand. Absorption is the amount of
inventory that becomes occupied during specific time
period.
Location/ site feasibility
can be categorized to two classifications, site selection
and best and highest use. Site selections asks the
question,” what is the best site for the specific use?” and
best and highest use asks the question, “what is the best
use for the site?”
A real estate location / site analysis
addresses two essential questions, “is the proposed
development possible and is it practical?”
In another words, is the
intended use both technically and physically
feasible?
Site analysis focuses more
on technical feasibility and identifies if the location/
site is possible. Some technical components are physical
limitation (site size and shape, natural features),
regulatory requirements (zoning, future land use) and
environmental concerns (hazards materials, federal
laws)
Location analysis focuses
more on functional feasibility and identifies if the
location is practical. Some functional characteristics
include demographics (make up of costumer base by age,
income), accessibility and linkages (proximity to customer
base, suppliers), traffic generators (other outlets to
attraction that will cratepatronage), competition (direct
and indirect)
Financial feasibility is a
price that allows a reasonable profit commensurate with the
risk involved. Financial feasibility also means keeping the
occupancy cost at a level commensurate with user’s budget
requirements. The proposed new location can be financially
feasible if, the occupancy cost does not exceed the maximum
acceptable percentage of expected sales estimate by the
retailer.
An investor seeking to purchase income
producing real estate is faced with establishing several
budgets, each of which must track the potential impact of
future market conditions. One, purchase budget includes
considerations of purchase price, loans, points,
closing,
recordation’s fees, legal
costs, appraisals, surveys, environmental and property
inspections. Two, holding period, the operating money budget
includes analysis and future estimate of the items outlined
on annual property operating data. APOD.
Third,
disposition, the sales proceeds
budget estimates items such as
the possible future sales
price, commissions to be paid, loan payoffs requirements and
penalties, closing costs to be paid by seller and legal
costs.
One way to accomplish the financial
analysis is to calculate the internal rate of return (IRR)
of expected cash flows and sales proceeds after tax over the
investments projected holding period and compare it with
investor’s desired yield.
Alternatively, the investor can
use net present value analysis to discount future cash flows
at the desired rate to present value that can be compared
purchase costs involved.
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